A recent fad appears to be making predictions about the future of work. Made by the same demographic that watched Tomorrow’s World in the 70s and proclaimed that by the year 2000 we’d all be going around in flying cars and eating meals in the form of pills.
The excitement is real and genuine, every time a high-profile organisation does anything goofy, we hear “that’s the future of work”. Which totally misses the point. This isn’t about,
- Social connection
- Mobile technology
- Holacracy (I can’t even bring myself to say it)
At the end of the day, the basis of work is an exchange of labour for reward. Not much changing there any time soon.
Too much of the debate is led by the middle-income, middle class, semi professional demographic. Who, it seems to me, are forecasting what they would like to see happen rather than basing it on anything solid.
So what are the trends that we are definitely seeing?
- The rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer
- There is a widening skills gap
- And increased regionalisation of both of the above
- People are working longer, retiring later, or becoming dependent on those that do work
But none of these things are new. We’ve seen them all before. In fact, they represent the trend for significant parts of the history of work and employment.*
- A gap between rich and poor
- The skilled and the unskilled
- Regional wealth
- Longer working life and the dependence of the infirm*
In some ways, you could argue that the last fifty years have been the blip. When we look at the future of work, we need to look a little bit further afield…..
But it isn’t forward, it’s back.
And there’s not a single, shiny new management trend in sight. Just a significant challenge for all of us involved in the world of work to face up to.
*UPDATE: Thanks to @FlipChartRick for seeking clarification on this point. The use of the word “trend” is perhaps a little loose and reality might have been a better choice of words.